SGMA Climate Change Resources
This dataset includes processed climate change datasets related to climatology, hydrology, and water operations. The climatological data provided are change factors for precipitation and reference evapotranspiration gridded over the entire State. The hydrological data provided are projected stream inflows for major streams in the Central Valley, and streamflow change factors for areas outside of the Central Valley and smaller ungaged watersheds within the Central Valley. The water operations data provided are Central Valley reservoir outflows, diversions, and State Water Project (SWP) and Central Valley Project (CVP) water deliveries and select streamflow data. Most of the Central Valley inflows and all of the water operations data were simulated using the CalSim II model and produced for all projections. These data were originally developed for the California Water Commission’s Water Storage Investment Program (WSIP). The WSIP data used as the basis for these climate change resources along with the technical reference document are located here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/climate-change-projections-wsip-2030-2070. Additional processing steps were performed to improve user experience, ease of use for GSP development, and for Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) implementation. Furthermore, the data, tools, and guidance may be useful for purposes other than sustainable groundwater management under SGMA. Data are provided for projected climate conditions centered around 2030 and 2070. The climate projections are provided for these two future climate periods, and include one scenario for 2030 and three scenarios for 2070: a 2030 central tendency, a 2070 central tendency, and two 2070 extreme scenarios (i.e., one drier with extreme warming and one wetter with moderate warming). The climate scenario development process represents a climate period analysis where historical interannual variability from January 1915 through December 2011 is preserved while the magnitude of events may be increased or decreased based on projected changes in precipitation and air temperature from general circulation models. ## 2070 Extreme Scenarios Update, September 2020 DWR has collaborated with Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to improve the quality of the 2070 extreme scenarios. The 2070 extreme scenario update utilizes an improved climate period analysis method known as "quantile delta mapping" to better capture the GCM-projected change in temperature and precipitation. A technical note on the background and results of this process is provided here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/extreme-climate-change-scenarios-for-water-supply-planning/resource/f2e1c61a-4946-4863-825f-e6d516b433ed. *Note: the original version of the 2070 extreme scenarios can be accessed in the archive posted here: https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/sgma-climate-change-resources/resource/51b6ee27-4f78-4226-8429-86c3a85046f4*
Data files
| Data title and description | Access data | File details | Last updated |
|---|---|---|---|
1995 Historical Detrended Precipitation and ET Reference Data This data is the reference dataset used to develop change factors for 2030 and 2070 projections. This dataset covers the entire state of California including any contributing watershed area outside of the state boundary. | Download | CSV | 08/11/23 |
1995 Historical Detrended Streamflow This dataset is used to generate the streamflow change factors for each of the climate projections. | Download | ZIP | 08/11/23 |
Statewide Gridded Precipitation and ET This dataset includes the precipitation and evapotranspiration change factors for the 2030, 2070, 2070DEW, and 2070WMW projections. Change factors are calculated from data developed as input to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for precipitation and output as provided by VIC for reference evapotranspiration. The dataset is provided as a grid covering the whole state at a 1/16 degree resolution. | Download | ZIP | 08/11/23 |
Central Valley Flows and Diversions This dataset contains point locations with streamflow for major reservoir inflows and smaller tributary inflows within the Central Valley, as routed by the VIC model for 2030, 2070, 2070DEW, and 2070WMW projected conditions. Many of these locations serve as inputs to the CalSim II model. Point locations have been approximately mapped spatially. CalSim II model output data including major reservoir outflows, streamflows at select locations, and streamflow diversions have been compiled with approximate locations mapped spatially. Direct flows are provided for all projected conditions. | Download | ZIP | 08/11/23 |
Statewide Streamflow Change Factors This dataset includes change factors for small watersheds or watersheds without a gaging station that can be used to perturb streamflow. Runoff and baseflow from the VIC model were combined and aggregated using a weighted-average over each HUC 8 (CalWater 2.2.1) watershed to produce streamflow change factors applicable to each watershed for 2030, 2070, 2070DEW and 2070WMW projected conditions. | Download | ZIP | 08/11/23 |
ArcGIS Climate Change Toolbox for MODFLOW This tool is developed to assist users in developing projected precipitation and evapotranspiration input array files for MODFLOW models using the Department of Water Resources provided climate change projections. The tool requires ArcGIS for Desktop 10 or greater and has undergone limited testing in ArcGIS Pro. | Download | ZIP | 08/11/23 |
ArcGIS Climate Change Toolbox for IWFM This tool is developed to assist users in developing projected precipitation and evapotranspiration input files for IWFM models using the Department of Water Resources provided climate change projections. The tool requires ArcGIS for Desktop 10 or greater and has undergone limited testing in ArcGIS Pro. | Download | ZIP | 08/11/23 |
Archive (version 1) 2070 DEW and WMW Datasets This archive contains the 2070 extreme scenario datasets originally released in 2018. | Download | ZIP | 08/11/23 |
Projected Water Year Type Datasets Projected Water Year Types for each of the climate change projections (2030 Central Tendency, 2070 Central Tendency, 2070 DEW, 2070 WMW) for inside the Central Valley based on the approach outlined in SWRCB D1641 and outside the Central Valley using a similar approach to the [SGMA Water Year Type Dataset](https://data.cnra.ca.gov/dataset/sgma-water-year-type-dataset) | Download | ZIP | 08/11/23 |
Supporting files
| Data title and description | Access data | File details | Last updated |
|---|---|---|---|
State Water Project Contractor Deliveries This dataset includes the contract amounts for deliveries to State Water Project contractors. | Download | XLSX | 08/11/23 |
Central Valley Project Contractor Deliveries This dataset includes the contract amounts for deliveries to Central Valley Project contractors. | Download | XLSX | 08/11/23 |
Second Order Correction Tool The Second Order Correction Tool was developed to help correct for shifts in monthly timing and annual volume of streamflow in watersheds where the Variable Infiltration Capacity Model is used. | Download | XLSX | 08/11/23 |
Climate Change Resource Guide The Resource Guide gives GSAs and other stakeholders a high-level overview of the climate change resources including datasets provided by DWR, tools for working with the DWR-provided datasets, and guidance for using DWR-provided data and tools in developing GSPs. The datasets and methods can provide technical assistance to GSAs for developing projected water budgets. | Download | PDF | 08/11/23 |
Guidance for Climate Change Data Use During Sustainability Plan Development The objective of this Guidance Document is to provide Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) and other stakeholders with information regarding climate change datasets and related tools provided by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) for use in developing Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs). The datasets and methods are provided as technical assistance to GSAs to develop projected water budgets. | Download | PDF | 08/11/23 |
Update to the 2070 Extreme Climate Change Scenarios Dataset Background and description of updates made to the 2070 extreme scenarios. | Download | PDF | 08/11/23 |
DWR SGMO Projected Water Year Types This is a data development report documenting the approach for calculating water year types under the 2030 and 2070 Climate Change Projections. | Download | PDF | 08/11/23 |